I would have to agree with this premise. Preemptive cancellations are the name of the game now, and diversions are dropping dramatically. Even with the summer thunderstorm season upon us, diversions have been few. We are more likely to see Delta diversions destined for Detroit than anything else. We DID have an Air France A340 drop in on us a bit ago for the same reason, but United diversions are virtually non-existent, save for tech stops or medical emergencies.
Confirming the apparent preference of UA to cancel rather than divert, I came across the below numbers for Jan-Jun 2013, by UA acft type, that show way more cancellations. CO used to figure that cancellations cost more than delays; times have changed.
acft | divert_percentage -------+------------------- A319 | 0.4 A320 | 0.2 B737 | 0.3 B738 | 0.3 B739 | 0.3 B744 | 0.2 B752 | 0.4 B753 | 0.2 B763 | 0.3 B764 | 0.2 B772 | 0.1 B788 | 0.6
acft | cancellation_percent -------+---------------------- A319 | 1.5 A320 | 1.4 B737 | 1.0 B738 | 0.5 B739 | 0.5 B744 | 0.6 B752 | 1.1 B753 | 1.6 B763 | 1.7 B764 | 0.9 B772 | 0.5 B788 | 3.5
Yes, that seems to tell a story right there Massey. I think it stems from the fear of fines for long-tarmac delays, which are quite hefty, and the airlines would rather cancel than risk a lengthy weather related ground delay and possible numerous gate returns while awaiting an opening in the weather. Plus, gate space is limited so planes would have to play "musical gates" to return in time to avoid a fine, and not all planes can park on all gates...a logistical nightmare. Passengers no longer want to wait out a storm or be "held captive" on an airplane, so the simplest thing to do seems to be to cancel in advance and avoid the risk altogether.
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